Economy

Rates, inflation, jobs, and macro trends

145 open forecasts

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China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0% 89% Yes No
5.0–6.0% 6% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$897K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

0-1.0% 73% Yes No
1.0-2.0% 22% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$31K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 62% Yes No
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 34% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$75K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US recession by end of 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$1.7M Vol.
Polymarket Economy

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0% 7% Yes No
6.0% 6% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$487K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2% 78% Yes No
<0 11% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$82K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4% 60% Yes No
≤1.9% 40% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$43K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$9K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B 42% Yes No
700–800B 25% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$24K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1m 100% Yes No
1.1m 100% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$184K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

UK Recession in 2026?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$10K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

OpenAI IPO by...?

March 31, 2027 53% Yes No
June 30, 2027 49% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31, 2026 94% Yes No
October 31, 2026 90% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T 22% Yes No
$1.5T–$1.75T 19% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$93K Vol.
Polymarket

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 2027 10% Yes No
December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
$29K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$ANTH 69% Yes No
$ANT 20% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$81K Vol.
Polymarket

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Goldman Sachs 62% Yes No
Morgan Stanley 36% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$52K Vol.
Polymarket

Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

↑ 100B HKD 100% Yes No
↑ 150B HKD 100% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$73K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

600B+ 95% Yes No
No IPO by December 31, 2027 2% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$442K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.8T+ 84% Yes No
1.5–1.8T 11% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$379K Vol.
Polymarket

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

8–11B 24% Yes No
11–14B 24% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$49K Vol.
Polymarket

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

October 2026 82% Yes No
September 2026 10% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$128K Vol.
Polymarket

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

1.5T+ 56% Yes No
1.25T–1.5T 14% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$186K Vol.
Polymarket

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

No 33%
Yes 67%
$886 Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech