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California Governor Election Winner Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Fed Decision in July? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? Bitcoin all time high by ___? Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? Venezuela leader end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SpaceX IPO by ___ ? Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Starmer out by...? Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
Forecasts closed World Polymarket

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Top outcomes

June 30 5%
October 31 0%
December 31 0%
March 31, 2026 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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$627K Vol. Closed Oct 31, 2025

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Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$627K Vol.

June 30

5% market probability

5%
Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

October 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

December 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

March 31, 2026

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

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