Open Science & Tech Polymarket

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

$186K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live odds

No 95%
Yes 5%

Live Polymarket Chart

Embedded odds chart from Polymarket — updates automatically. Customize embed ↗

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

Place a forecast

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

216 days left

Pick your outcome below. Live Polymarket odds are captured when you submit.

Market closes Dec 31, 2026

Log in to place your forecast on this market.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.