Resolved Polymarket

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Top outcomes

JD Vance 100%
Donald Trump 100%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 96%
Shehbaz Sharif 38%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$628K Vol. Closes Aug 1, 2026
Resolved outcome: JD Vance

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$628.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$628K Vol.

JD Vance

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

Donald Trump

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

96% market probability

96%
Yes 96% +4 / −96 No 5% +95 / −5

Shehbaz Sharif

38% market probability

38%
Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

Abbas Araghchi

34% market probability

34%
Yes 34% +66 / −34 No 66% +34 / −66

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

20% market probability

20%
Yes 20% +80 / −20 No 80% +20 / −80

Masoud Pezeshkian

16% market probability

16%
Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

Steve Witkoff

16% market probability

16%
Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Marco Rubio

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

7% market probability

7%
Yes 7% +93 / −7 No 93% +7 / −93

Mohammed bin Salman

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Mojtaba Khamenei

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Benjamin Netanyahu

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Pete Hegseth

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

King Abdullah II

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Ali Larijani

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed for this market.

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