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Polymarket
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top outcomes
Avengers: Doomsday
72%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
20%
The Odyssey
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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$1.7M Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$1.7m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.7M Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
72% market probability
72%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 28%
+72 / −28
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Explain your No on Spider-Man: Brand New Day
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Odyssey
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on The Odyssey
Explain your No on The Odyssey
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Toy Story 5
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Toy Story 5
Explain your No on Toy Story 5
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dune: Messiah
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Dune: Messiah
Explain your No on Dune: Messiah
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Explain your No on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Michael
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Michael
Explain your No on Michael
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Scream 7
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Scream 7
Explain your No on Scream 7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Project Hail Mary
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Project Hail Mary
Explain your No on Project Hail Mary
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Wuthering Heights
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Wuthering Heights
Explain your No on Wuthering Heights
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Explain your No on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Explain your No on Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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