Open Pop Culture Polymarket

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

$1.6M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$1.6m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.6M Vol.

Avengers: Doomsday

72% market probability

72%
Yes 72% +28 / −72 No 29% +71 / −29

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

18% market probability

18%
Yes 18% +82 / −18 No 82% +18 / −82

Toy Story 5

5% market probability

5%
Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

Dune: Messiah

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

The Odyssey

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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