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Polymarket
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Top outcomes
Kenya
100%
Uganda
100%
Nigeria
48%
Somalia
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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$68K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$67.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$68K Vol.
Kenya
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Uganda
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Uganda
Explain your No on Uganda
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Nigeria
48% market probability
48%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 52%
+48 / −52
Explain your Yes on Nigeria
Explain your No on Nigeria
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Somalia
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Somalia
Explain your No on Somalia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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South Sudan
27% market probability
27%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 27%
+73 / −27
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 73%
+27 / −73
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Republic of the Congo
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on Republic of the Congo
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rwanda
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Rwanda
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Burundi
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Burundi
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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United States
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
Explain your Yes on United States
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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India
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on India
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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China
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on China
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Canada
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on Canada
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ethiopia
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Ethiopia
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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