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Polymarket
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Top outcomes
Uganda
100%
South Sudan
62%
Kenya
58%
Ethiopia
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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$29K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$28.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$29K Vol.
Uganda
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
South Sudan
62% market probability
62%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 62%
+38 / −62
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 38%
+62 / −38
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kenya
58% market probability
58%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 58%
+42 / −58
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 42%
+58 / −42
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ethiopia
53% market probability
53%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 53%
+47 / −53
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 47%
+53 / −47
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0 / 2,000
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Canada
42% market probability
42%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 58%
+42 / −58
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Burundi
36% market probability
36%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 64%
+36 / −64
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Somalia
36% market probability
36%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 64%
+36 / −64
Explain your Yes on Somalia
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rwanda
33% market probability
33%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 33%
+67 / −33
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 67%
+33 / −67
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0 / 2,000
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India
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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United States
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
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0 / 2,000
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China
26% market probability
26%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 74%
+26 / −74
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0 / 2,000
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Nigeria
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
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0 / 2,000
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Republic of the Congo
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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