Open Polymarket

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

Top outcomes

Anthropic 42%
Google 40%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai 0%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

$192K Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$192.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$192K Vol.

Anthropic

42% market probability

42%
Yes 42% +58 / −42 No 57% +43 / −57

Google

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

OpenAI

13% market probability

13%
Yes 13% +87 / −13 No 87% +13 / −87

Z.ai

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Moonshot

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

xAI

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Alibaba

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Meta

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Baidu

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Amazon

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Meituan

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Mistral

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

DeepSeek

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

ByteDance

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Microsoft

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Log in to place your forecast on this event.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.