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Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? Brazil Presidential Election Iran leadership change by...? Will Base launch a token by ___ ? NFL Champion 2027 Epstein client list released by...? Trump out as President before 2027? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Largest Company end of December 2026? LALIGA: 2027 Champion Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? MLB: 2026 American League Champion Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Xi Jinping out before 2027? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Open Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Top outcomes

OpenAI 20%
Google 16%
Z.ai 16%
xAI 12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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$134K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$133.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$134K Vol.

OpenAI

20% market probability

20%

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0 / 2,000

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Google

16% market probability

16%

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0 / 2,000

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Z.ai

16% market probability

16%

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0 / 2,000

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xAI

12% market probability

12%

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0 / 2,000

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Meta

12% market probability

12%

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0 / 2,000

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Alibaba

12% market probability

12%

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0 / 2,000

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Moonshot

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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ByteDance

8% market probability

8%

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0 / 2,000

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Baidu

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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DeepSeek

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Microsoft

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Amazon

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Meituan

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Mistral

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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