Open
Polymarket
Tour De France 2026: Winner Nationality
Top outcomes
Slovenia
98%
Other
50%
Country A
50%
Country B
50%
This market will resolve according to the listed nationality of the 2026 Tour de France champion.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nationality of the rider whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Tour de France is cancelled, postponed after July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if a champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the Tour de France website.
Read more
Show less
$53K Vol.
Closes Jul 26, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$52.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$53K Vol.
Slovenia
98% market probability
98%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 98%
+2 / −98
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 2%
+98 / −2
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Other
Explain your No on Other
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Country A
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Country A
Explain your No on Country A
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Country B
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Country B
Explain your No on Country B
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Country C
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Country C
Explain your No on Country C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Country D
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Country D
Explain your No on Country D
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Country E
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Country E
Explain your No on Country E
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Belgium
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Belgium
Explain your No on Belgium
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
France
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on France
Explain your No on France
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Denmark
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Denmark
Explain your No on Denmark
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Germany
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Germany
Explain your No on Germany
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mexico
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Mexico
Explain your No on Mexico
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
USA
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on USA
Explain your No on USA
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Italy
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Italy
Explain your No on Italy
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Spain
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Spain
Explain your No on Spain
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Canada
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Canada
Explain your No on Canada
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Latvia
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Latvia
Explain your No on Latvia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Norway
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Norway
Explain your No on Norway
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Poland
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Poland
Explain your No on Poland
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Austria
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Austria
Explain your No on Austria
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Czechia
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Czechia
Explain your No on Czechia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Ecuador
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Ecuador
Explain your No on Ecuador
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Eritrea
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Eritrea
Explain your No on Eritrea
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Ireland
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Ireland
Explain your No on Ireland
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Colombia
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Colombia
Explain your No on Colombia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Portugal
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Portugal
Explain your No on Portugal
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Australia
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Australia
Explain your No on Australia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kazakhstan
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Kazakhstan
Explain your No on Kazakhstan
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Luxembourg
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Luxembourg
Explain your No on Luxembourg
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Netherlands
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Netherlands
Explain your No on Netherlands
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
New Zealand
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on New Zealand
Explain your No on New Zealand
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Switzerland
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Switzerland
Explain your No on Switzerland
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Great Britain
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Great Britain
Explain your No on Great Britain
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.