Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner US military action against Cuba by...? Colombia Presidential Election Where will Trump and Putin meet next? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 World Cup: Golden Boot Winner US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Netanyahu out by...? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Xi Jinping out before 2027? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Largest Company end of June? Iran leader end of 2026?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner US military action against Cuba by...? Colombia Presidential Election Where will Trump and Putin meet next? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 World Cup: Golden Boot Winner US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Netanyahu out by...? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Xi Jinping out before 2027? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Largest Company end of June? Iran leader end of 2026?
Open Crypto Polymarket

Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top outcomes

$500M 33%
$50M 14%
$300M 13%
$100M 10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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$114K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2028

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$114.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$114K Vol.

$500M

33% market probability

33%

Explain your Yes on $500M Explain your No on $500M (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

$50M

14% market probability

14%

Explain your Yes on $50M Explain your No on $50M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$300M

13% market probability

13%

Explain your Yes on $300M Explain your No on $300M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$100M

10% market probability

10%

Explain your Yes on $100M Explain your No on $100M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$400M

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on $400M Explain your No on $400M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$800M

7% market probability

7%

Explain your Yes on $800M Explain your No on $800M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$1B

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on $1B Explain your No on $1B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$200M

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on $200M Explain your No on $200M (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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