Open Polymarket

Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Top outcomes

July 31 73%
July 17 73%
July 10 70%
July 3 64%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$141K Vol. Closes Jul 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$140.6k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$141K Vol.

July 31

73% market probability

73%

Explain your Yes on July 31 Explain your No on July 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 17

73% market probability

73%

Explain your Yes on July 17 Explain your No on July 17 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 10

70% market probability

70%

Explain your Yes on July 10 Explain your No on July 10 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 3

64% market probability

64%

Explain your Yes on July 3 Explain your No on July 3 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 2

56% market probability

56%

Explain your Yes on July 2 Explain your No on July 2 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 1

41% market probability

41%

Explain your Yes on July 1 Explain your No on July 1 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

June 30

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on June 30 Explain your No on June 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

June 29

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on June 29 Explain your No on June 29 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

June 26

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on June 26 Explain your No on June 26 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.