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Polymarket
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Top outcomes
140-159
49%
160-179
31%
180-199
5%
200 or more
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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$316K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$316.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$316K Vol.
140-159
49% market probability
49%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 49%
+51 / −49
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 51%
+49 / −51
160-179
31% market probability
31%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 31%
+69 / −31
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 69%
+31 / −69
Explain your Yes on 160-179
Explain your No on 160-179
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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180-199
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on 180-199
Explain your No on 180-199
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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200 or more
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on 200 or more
Explain your No on 200 or more
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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120-139
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on 120-139
Explain your No on 120-139
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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100-119
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 100-119
Explain your No on 100-119
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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<100
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on <100
Explain your No on <100
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
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