Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?

Top outcomes

2 50%
3 49%
1 48%
0 47%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Closes Jul 19, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$0 Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

2

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on 2 Explain your No on 2 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

3

49% market probability

49%

Explain your Yes on 3 Explain your No on 3 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

1

48% market probability

48%

Explain your Yes on 1 Explain your No on 1 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

0

47% market probability

47%

Explain your Yes on 0 Explain your No on 0 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

>5

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on >5 Explain your No on >5 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

4

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 4 Explain your No on 4 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

5

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 5 Explain your No on 5 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.