Open Economy Polymarket

Fed rate hike by...?

Top outcomes

October Meeting 66%
September Meeting 56%
July Meeting 35%
June Meeting 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$1.0M Vol. Closes Dec 9, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$1.0m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.0M Vol.

October Meeting

66% market probability

66%

Explain your Yes on October Meeting Explain your No on October Meeting (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September Meeting

56% market probability

56%

Explain your Yes on September Meeting Explain your No on September Meeting (optional)

0 / 2,000

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July Meeting

35% market probability

35%

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0 / 2,000

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June Meeting

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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April Meeting

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

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