Open Economy Polymarket

Fed rate hike by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$154K Vol. Closes Oct 29, 2026

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$153.6k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$154K Vol.

October Meeting

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

September Meeting

15% market probability

15%
Yes 15% +85 / −15 No 85% +15 / −85

July Meeting

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

June Meeting

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99
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Public forecast history

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