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Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026
Top outcomes
Harry Kane
94%
Kylian Mbappé
56%
Lamine Yamal
48%
Dayot Upamecano
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$40.1k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$40K Vol.
Harry Kane
94% market probability
94%
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
No 6%
+94 / −6
Kylian Mbappé
56% market probability
56%
Yes 56%
+44 / −56
No 44%
+56 / −44
Lamine Yamal
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
Dayot Upamecano
46% market probability
46%
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
No 54%
+46 / −54
Michael Olise
43% market probability
43%
Yes 43%
+57 / −43
No 57%
+43 / −57
Ferran Torres
9% market probability
9%
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
No 91%
+9 / −91
Lionel Messi
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Fabian Ruiz
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Julián Quiñones
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Marquinhos
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Erling Haaland
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Rodri
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
João Neves
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Pau Cubarsi
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
William Saliba
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Marc Cucurella
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Vinícius Júnior
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Luis Diaz
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Achraf Hakimi
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Declan Rice
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Gabriel Magalhães
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Sadio Mané
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Ousmane Dembélé
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Vitinha
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Nuno Mendes
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Willian Pacho
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Bruno Fernandes
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Jude Bellingham
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Lautaro Martinez
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Public forecast history
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