Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

October 20 31% Yes No
October 22 21% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$98K Vol.
Polymarket

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

October 31, 2026 3% Yes No
October 15, 2026 0% Yes No
$94K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 92% Yes No
1200–1249 4% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$86K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$83K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 2027 38% Yes No
December 31, 2026 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$78K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Google 70% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$77K Vol.
Polymarket

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

Anthropic 52% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+32 more outcomes

$75K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?

Other 50% Yes No
Company A 50% Yes No

+32 more outcomes

$75K Vol.
Polymarket

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

Meta 51% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$71K Vol.
Polymarket

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Google 52% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$70K Vol.
Polymarket

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Anthropic 64% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$67K Vol.
Polymarket

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027? 66% Yes No
March 31, 2027 52% Yes No
$66K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Third-best AI Lab end of October?

Meta 88% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$64K Vol.
Polymarket

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Hodge Conjecture 20% Yes No
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 20% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$60K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

No release by October 31 96% Yes No
October 18 1% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$54K Vol.
Polymarket

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

35 to 49 41% Yes No
20 to 34 39% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$51K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Microsoft 30% Yes No
Anthropic 28% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$45K Vol.
Polymarket

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

November 30 29% Yes No
October 31 15% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$45K Vol.
Polymarket

Claude 6 released by...?

December 31, 2027 92% Yes No
June 30, 2027 72% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$39K Vol.
Polymarket

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Other 50% Yes No
Company A 50% Yes No

+23 more outcomes

$37K Vol.
Polymarket

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

3.00 ft or more 26% Yes No
1.00 to 2.99 ft 26% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$35K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 78% Yes No
Below 4,189.3 ft 21% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$30K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$28K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech