Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027
42%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
32%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 31
13%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$2.8M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
No
January 9
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
2%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
December 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other
50%
Yes
No
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
40%
Yes
No
+7 more outcomes
$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Ukraine election held by...?
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
64%
Yes
No
Republican
34%
Yes
No
$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)
60%
Yes
No
Susan Collins (R)
40%
Yes
No
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket
World
US strike on Colombia by...?
December 31
20%
Yes
No
March 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Macron out by...?
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
No
July 31, 2026
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Alberta join the US?
No
98%
Yes
2%
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
2%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket
World
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 9
100%
Yes
No
October 12
100%
Yes
No
+8 more outcomes
$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027
56%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
38%
Yes
No
+7 more outcomes
$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
82%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+56 more outcomes
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
76%
Yes
No
No meeting by December 31
18%
Yes
No
+13 more outcomes
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
70%
Yes
No
Mike Rogers (R)
30%
Yes
No
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Showing 49–72