Politics
Elections, policy, and government
194 open forecasts
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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
No
6%
Yes
94%
$217K Vol.
Polymarket
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
No
76%
Yes
24%
$197K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No
86%
Yes
14%
$192K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
13%
$189K Vol.
Polymarket
Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?
June 30, 2026
3%
Yes
No
January 31, 2026
0%
Yes
No
$179K Vol.
Polymarket
Anthropic CEO arrested?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$175K Vol.
Polymarket
Pop Culture
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$170K Vol.
Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$168K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?
July 31
4%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$157K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$149K Vol.
Polymarket
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
No
87%
Yes
13%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$142K Vol.
Polymarket
JD Vance out as VP by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
June 30
1%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$142K Vol.
Polymarket
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
$126K Vol.
Polymarket
Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory
de la Espriella 5-10%
56%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$111K Vol.
Polymarket
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
$110K Vol.
Polymarket
Who will attend the NATO Summit?
Donald Trump
92%
Yes
No
Marco Rubio
90%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$104K Vol.
Polymarket
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
$104K Vol.
Polymarket
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
No
72%
Yes
28%
$100K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Elon Musk # tweets June 16 - June 23, 2026?
200-219
20%
Yes
No
180-199
18%
Yes
No
+24 more outcomes
$82K Vol.
Polymarket
Pop Culture
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
No
93%
Yes
7%
$80K Vol.
Polymarket
Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place
Robert Kenyon
79%
Yes
No
Andy Burnham
16%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$77K Vol.
Polymarket
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$71K Vol.
Polymarket
Showing 145–168 of 194