Politics

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194 open forecasts

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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

No 6%
Yes 94%
$217K Vol.
Polymarket

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$197K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$192K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$189K Vol.
Polymarket

Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?

June 30, 2026 3% Yes No
January 31, 2026 0% Yes No
$179K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic CEO arrested?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$175K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$170K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$168K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

July 31 4% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$157K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$149K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$142K Vol.
Polymarket

JD Vance out as VP by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$126K Vol.
Polymarket

Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

de la Espriella 5-10% 56% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$111K Vol.
Polymarket

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$110K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will attend the NATO Summit?

Donald Trump 92% Yes No
Marco Rubio 90% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$104K Vol.
Polymarket

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$104K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

No 72%
Yes 28%
$100K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Elon Musk # tweets June 16 - June 23, 2026?

200-219 20% Yes No
180-199 18% Yes No

+24 more outcomes

$82K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$80K Vol.
Polymarket

Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place

Robert Kenyon 79% Yes No
Andy Burnham 16% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$77K Vol.
Polymarket

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$71K Vol.
Polymarket