Forecasts closed
Polymarket
World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
Top outcomes
Spain
60%
France
57%
England
55%
Portugal
52%
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$275.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$276K Vol.
Spain
60% market probability
60%
Yes 60%
+40 / −60
No 40%
+60 / −40
France
57% market probability
57%
Yes 57%
+43 / −57
No 43%
+57 / −43
England
55% market probability
55%
Yes 55%
+45 / −55
No 45%
+55 / −45
Portugal
52% market probability
52%
Yes 52%
+48 / −52
No 48%
+52 / −48
Argentina
52% market probability
52%
Yes 52%
+48 / −52
No 48%
+52 / −48
Brazil
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
Germany
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
Netherlands
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
Belgium
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
Norway
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
Colombia
30% market probability
30%
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
No 70%
+30 / −70
Mexico
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Switzerland
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
USA
24% market probability
24%
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
No 76%
+24 / −76
Japan
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Morocco
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Turkiye
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Croatia
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Uruguay
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Ecuador
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Canada
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
Senegal
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Austria
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Ivory Coast
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
South Korea
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
Czechia
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Egypt
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Sweden
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Paraguay
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Scotland
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Algeria
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Iran
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
DR Congo
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Australia
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Ghana
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
South Africa
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Tunisia
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Saudi Arabia
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
New Zealand
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Qatar
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Panama
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Uzbekistan
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Iraq
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Cape Verde
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Jordan
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Haiti
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Curacao
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts were placed before this market closed.
