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Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?
Top outcomes
JD Vance
100%
Elon Musk
100%
Dana White
100%
Xi Jinping
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as praise if it expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the individual either personally or professionally. This includes direct praise, attributing a positive personal or professional trait to the individual (e.g., strong, smart, loyal, a winner), or equivalent positive descriptions. General neutrality or polite diplomatic language will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
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$76K Vol.
Closes Oct 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$76.3k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$76K Vol.
JD Vance
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Elon Musk
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Elon Musk
Explain your No on Elon Musk
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dana White
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Dana White
Explain your No on Dana White
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Xi Jinping
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Xi Jinping
Explain your No on Xi Jinping
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kevin Warsh
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Kevin Warsh
Explain your No on Kevin Warsh
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Andy Burnham
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Andy Burnham
Explain your No on Andy Burnham
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Byron Donalds
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Byron Donalds
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Emmanuel Macron
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Emmanuel Macron
Explain your No on Emmanuel Macron
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Karoline Leavitt
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Karoline Leavitt
Explain your No on Karoline Leavitt
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Claudia Sheinbaum
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Claudia Sheinbaum
Explain your No on Claudia Sheinbaum
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Flávio Bolsonaro
94% market probability
94%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 6%
+94 / −6
Explain your Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Benjamin Netanyahu
66% market probability
66%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 34%
+66 / −34
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
Explain your No on Benjamin Netanyahu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dario Amodei
49% market probability
49%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 49%
+51 / −49
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 51%
+49 / −51
Explain your Yes on Dario Amodei
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Gianni Infantino
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 54%
+46 / −54
Explain your Yes on Gianni Infantino
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Delcy Rodriguez
45% market probability
45%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 45%
+55 / −45
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 55%
+45 / −55
Explain your Yes on Delcy Rodriguez
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0 / 2,000
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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 55%
+45 / −55
Explain your Yes on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Explain your No on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy
40% market probability
40%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 60%
+40 / −60
Explain your Yes on Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Explain your No on Volodymyr Zelenskyy
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Rutte
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Mark Rutte
Explain your No on Mark Rutte
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Bryson DeChambeau
35% market probability
35%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 35%
+65 / −35
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 65%
+35 / −65
Explain your Yes on Bryson DeChambeau
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Javier Milei
34% market probability
34%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 66%
+34 / −66
Explain your Yes on Javier Milei
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kim Jong Un
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on Kim Jong Un
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Zohran Mamdani
29% market probability
29%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 29%
+71 / −29
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 71%
+29 / −71
Explain your Yes on Zohran Mamdani
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Warren Buffett
23% market probability
23%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 23%
+77 / −23
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 77%
+23 / −77
Explain your Yes on Warren Buffett
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Nicki Minaj
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Nicki Minaj
Explain your No on Nicki Minaj
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jon Rahm
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Jon Rahm
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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