Open
Polymarket
Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Top outcomes
Steve Witkoff
16%
JD Vance
15%
Jared Kushner
14%
Shehbaz Sharif
13%
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.
Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.
If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Read more
Show less
$752K Vol.
Closes Jul 7, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$752.2k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$752K Vol.
Steve Witkoff
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
JD Vance
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
Explain your Yes on JD Vance
Explain your No on JD Vance
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Jared Kushner
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Jared Kushner
Explain your No on Jared Kushner
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Shehbaz Sharif
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
Explain your Yes on Shehbaz Sharif
Explain your No on Shehbaz Sharif
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Abbas Araghchi
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on Abbas Araghchi
Explain your No on Abbas Araghchi
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
Explain your No on Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
Explain your No on Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Explain your No on Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Masoud Pezeshkian
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Masoud Pezeshkian
Explain your No on Masoud Pezeshkian
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Explain your No on Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mohammed bin Salman
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Mohammed bin Salman
Explain your No on Mohammed bin Salman
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Explain your No on Recep Tayyip Erdogan
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
Explain your No on Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Donald Trump
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Donald Trump
Explain your No on Donald Trump
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Benjamin Netanyahu
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
Explain your No on Benjamin Netanyahu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
King Abdullah II
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on King Abdullah II
Explain your No on King Abdullah II
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Marco Rubio
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Marco Rubio
Explain your No on Marco Rubio
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Pete Hegseth
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Pete Hegseth
Explain your No on Pete Hegseth
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Elon Musk
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Elon Musk
Explain your No on Elon Musk
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mojtaba Khamenei
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei
Explain your No on Mojtaba Khamenei
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.