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Resolved Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Top outcomes

Anthropic 100%
OpenAI 4%
xAI 1%
DeepSeek 1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

View on Polymarket
$1.6M Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026
Resolved outcome: Anthropic

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$1.6m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.6M Vol.

Anthropic

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

OpenAI

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

xAI

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

DeepSeek

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Meta

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Alibaba

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Z.ai

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Baidu

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Nvidia

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Mistral

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Meituan

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed for this market.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.