Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Netanyahu out by...? NFL Champion 2027 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Largest Company end of December 2026? 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? MLB World Series Champion 2026 Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Base launch a token by ___ ? Fed rate hike in 2026? Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Netanyahu out by...? NFL Champion 2027 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Largest Company end of December 2026? 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? MLB World Series Champion 2026 Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Base launch a token by ___ ? Fed rate hike in 2026? Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Open Pop Culture Polymarket

What will Trump say during the Tribute to America Rally on July 4th?

Top outcomes

Military 92%
Hottest 83%
Stock Market 82%
Moon 80%

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the "Tribute to America" Independence Day celebration in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET. (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116817366986980714). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the "Tribute to America" Independence Day address scheduled for July 4, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

View on Polymarket
$32K Vol. Closes Jul 4, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$32.0k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$32K Vol.

Military

92% market probability

92%

Explain your Yes on Military Explain your No on Military (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Hottest

83% market probability

83%

Explain your Yes on Hottest Explain your No on Hottest (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Stock Market

82% market probability

82%

Explain your Yes on Stock Market Explain your No on Stock Market (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Moon

80% market probability

80%

Explain your Yes on Moon Explain your No on Moon (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

World War

78% market probability

78%

Explain your Yes on World War Explain your No on World War (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Beautiful 7+ times

76% market probability

76%

Explain your Yes on Beautiful 7+ times Explain your No on Beautiful 7+ times (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Never Seen Before

72% market probability

72%

Explain your Yes on Never Seen Before Explain your No on Never Seen Before (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Hundred / Thousand 10+ times

70% market probability

70%

Explain your Yes on Hundred / Thousand 10+ times Explain your No on Hundred / Thousand 10+ times (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Fake News

70% market probability

70%

Explain your Yes on Fake News Explain your No on Fake News (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Benjamin / Franklin

69% market probability

69%

Explain your Yes on Benjamin / Franklin Explain your No on Benjamin / Franklin (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

New York

65% market probability

65%

Explain your Yes on New York Explain your No on New York (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Bomb / Bomber

62% market probability

62%

Explain your Yes on Bomb / Bomber Explain your No on Bomb / Bomber (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Transgender

60% market probability

60%

Explain your Yes on Transgender Explain your No on Transgender (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Space Force

57% market probability

57%

Explain your Yes on Space Force Explain your No on Space Force (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Mandate

56% market probability

56%

Explain your Yes on Mandate Explain your No on Mandate (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Hussein

46% market probability

46%

Explain your Yes on Hussein Explain your No on Hussein (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Mount Rushmore

44% market probability

44%

Explain your Yes on Mount Rushmore Explain your No on Mount Rushmore (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Alexander / Hamilton

41% market probability

41%

Explain your Yes on Alexander / Hamilton Explain your No on Alexander / Hamilton (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Booming

40% market probability

40%

Explain your Yes on Booming Explain your No on Booming (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Golden Dome

39% market probability

39%

Explain your Yes on Golden Dome Explain your No on Golden Dome (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Happy Birthday America

33% market probability

33%

Explain your Yes on Happy Birthday America Explain your No on Happy Birthday America (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Restaurant

20% market probability

20%

Explain your Yes on Restaurant Explain your No on Restaurant (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Epic Fury

20% market probability

20%

Explain your Yes on Epic Fury Explain your No on Epic Fury (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Six Seven

18% market probability

18%

Explain your Yes on Six Seven Explain your No on Six Seven (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

-No Qualifying Event-

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on -No Qualifying Event- Explain your No on -No Qualifying Event- (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.