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US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)
Top outcomes
Alexander Zverev
46%
Carlos Alcaraz
42%
Taylor Fritz
18%
Ben Shelton
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$28K Vol.
Closes Sep 12, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$28.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$28K Vol.
Alexander Zverev
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 54%
+46 / −54
Carlos Alcaraz
42% market probability
42%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 57%
+43 / −57
Explain your Yes on Carlos Alcaraz
Explain your No on Carlos Alcaraz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Taylor Fritz
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on Taylor Fritz
Explain your No on Taylor Fritz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ben Shelton
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
Explain your Yes on Ben Shelton
Explain your No on Ben Shelton
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rafael Jodar
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
Explain your Yes on Rafael Jodar
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Daniil Medvedev
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
Explain your Yes on Daniil Medvedev
Explain your No on Daniil Medvedev
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jakub Mensik
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Jakub Mensik
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Felix Auger-Aliassime
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Felix Auger-Aliassime
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Flavio Cobolli
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Flavio Cobolli
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Brandon Nakashima
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Brandon Nakashima
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Frances Tiafoe
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Frances Tiafoe
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alex de Minaur
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Alex de Minaur
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tommy Paul
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Tommy Paul
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alexander Bublik
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Alexander Bublik
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Learner Tien
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Learner Tien
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lorenzo Musetti
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Lorenzo Musetti
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Valentin Vacherot
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Valentin Vacherot
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jiri Lehecka
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Jiri Lehecka
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Arthur Rinderknech
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Arthur Rinderknech
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Darwin Blanch
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Darwin Blanch
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Sebastian Gorzny
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Sebastian Gorzny
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tomas Martin Etcheverry
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Luciano Darderi
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Luciano Darderi
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alejandro Tabilo
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Alejandro Tabilo
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Michael Zheng
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Michael Zheng
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dane Sweeny
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Dane Sweeny
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Gael Monfils
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Gael Monfils
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Filip Misolic
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Filip Misolic
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Carlos Taberner
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Carlos Taberner
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Thanasi Kokkinakis
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Thanasi Kokkinakis
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Andrey Rublev
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Andrey Rublev
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Francisco Cerundolo
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Francisco Cerundolo
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alexander Blockx
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Alexander Blockx
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Zizou Bergs
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Zizou Bergs
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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J.J. Wolf
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on J.J. Wolf
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Arthur Fils
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Arthur Fils
Explain your No on Arthur Fils
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Casper Ruud
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Casper Ruud
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ugo Humbert
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Ugo Humbert
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jack Kennedy
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Jack Kennedy
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Joao Fonseca
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Joao Fonseca
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Cameron Norrie
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-40']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-40']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Cameron Norrie
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Juncheng Shang
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-41']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-41']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Juncheng Shang
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Novak Djokovic
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-42']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-42']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Novak Djokovic
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Patrick Kypson
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-43']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-43']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Patrick Kypson
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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