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Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top outcomes
$40M
48%
$80M
32%
$100M
22%
$150M
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tread (https://x.com/tread_fi) doesn't launch a token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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$83K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2028
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$82.8k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$83K Vol.
$40M
48% market probability
48%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 52%
+48 / −52
$80M
32% market probability
32%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 68%
+32 / −68
Explain your Yes on $80M
Explain your No on $80M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$100M
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on $100M
Explain your No on $100M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$150M
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on $150M
Explain your No on $150M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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$200M
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on $200M
Explain your No on $200M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$400M
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on $400M
Explain your No on $400M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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$300M
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on $300M
Explain your No on $300M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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$500M
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on $500M
Explain your No on $500M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
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