Open
Crypto
Polymarket
Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top outcomes
$5M
93%
$20M
72%
$40M
46%
$100M
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tread (https://x.com/tread_fi) doesn't launch a token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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$151K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2028
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$150.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$151K Vol.
$5M
93% market probability
93%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 93%
+7 / −93
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
$20M
72% market probability
72%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 28%
+72 / −28
Explain your Yes on $20M
Explain your No on $20M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$40M
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 54%
+46 / −54
Explain your Yes on $40M
Explain your No on $40M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$100M
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on $100M
Explain your No on $100M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$80M
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on $80M
Explain your No on $80M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$150M
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on $150M
Explain your No on $150M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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$200M
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on $200M
Explain your No on $200M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$300M
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on $300M
Explain your No on $300M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
$400M
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on $400M
Explain your No on $400M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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$500M
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on $500M
Explain your No on $500M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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