Iran leadership change by...? Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? Israel closes its airspace by...? Iran leader end of 2026? Brazil Presidential Election Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion LCK 2026 Season Winner Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner California Governor Election Winner Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Which party will win the House in 2026? Russia nuclear test by...? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Next French Presidential Election Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Forecasts closed Polymarket

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest: Joey Chestnut Hot Dogs Eaten

Top outcomes

55+ 96%

60+ 90%

65+ 70%

70+ 38%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number Hot Dogs Joey Chestnut Eats during the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No” If the 2026 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest is cancelled, postponed after July 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or Joey Chestnut's results cannot be determined, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Eating. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

View on Polymarket

$25K Vol. Closed Jul 3, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$24.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$25K Vol.

55+

96% market probability

96%

Yes 96% +4 / −96 No 4% +96 / −4

60+

90% market probability

90%

Yes 90% +10 / −90 No 10% +90 / −10

65+

70% market probability

70%

Yes 70% +30 / −70 No 30% +70 / −30

70+

38% market probability

38%

Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

72+

29% market probability

29%

Yes 29% +71 / −29 No 71% +29 / −71

74+

16% market probability

16%

Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

76+ (4th of July World Record)

11% market probability

11%

Yes 11% +89 / −11 No 89% +11 / −89

78+

4% market probability

Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

80+

1% market probability

Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

85+

1% market probability

Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

82+

1% market probability

Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts were placed before this market closed.