Open Science & Tech Polymarket

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

$178 Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026

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$178 Vol.

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$178 Vol.

1.20–1.24ºC

48% market probability

48%
Yes 48% +52 / −48 No 52% +48 / −52

<1.10ºC

32% market probability

32%
Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

>1.29ºC

30% market probability

30%
Yes 30% +70 / −30 No 70% +30 / −70

1.10–1.14ºC

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76

1.25–1.29ºC

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76

1.15–1.19ºC

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76
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