Open Science & Tech Polymarket

July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Top outcomes

1.10–1.14ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 46%
<1.10ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

$377 Vol. Closes Aug 1, 2026

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$377 Vol.

All outcomes

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$377 Vol.

1.10–1.14ºC

46% market probability

46%

Explain your Yes on 1.10–1.14ºC Explain your No on 1.10–1.14ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1.20–1.24ºC

46% market probability

46%

Explain your Yes on 1.20–1.24ºC Explain your No on 1.20–1.24ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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<1.10ºC

41% market probability

41%

Explain your Yes on <1.10ºC Explain your No on <1.10ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1.15–1.19ºC

41% market probability

41%

Explain your Yes on 1.15–1.19ºC Explain your No on 1.15–1.19ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1.25–1.29ºC

41% market probability

41%

Explain your Yes on 1.25–1.29ºC Explain your No on 1.25–1.29ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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>1.29ºC

40% market probability

40%

Explain your Yes on >1.29ºC Explain your No on >1.29ºC (optional)

0 / 2,000

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