Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12?

Top outcomes

0 40%
2 27%
1 26%
3 9%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

$537 Vol. Closes Jul 12, 2026

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$537 Vol.

All outcomes

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$537 Vol.

0

40% market probability

40%

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0 / 2,000

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2

27% market probability

27%

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0 / 2,000

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1

26% market probability

26%

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0 / 2,000

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3

9% market probability

9%

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0 / 2,000

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4

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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5

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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>5

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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