Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 29 - July 5?

Top outcomes

14 44%
12 38%
10 36%
13 34%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

$270 Vol. Closes Jul 5, 2026

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$270 Vol.

All outcomes

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$270 Vol.

14

44% market probability

44%

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0 / 2,000

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12

38% market probability

38%

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0 / 2,000

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10

36% market probability

36%

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0 / 2,000

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13

34% market probability

34%

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0 / 2,000

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≤8

31% market probability

31%

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0 / 2,000

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9

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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11

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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>14

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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