Resolved Economy Polymarket

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Top outcomes

Pause–Pause–Pause 100%
Other 0%
Cut–Cut–Cut 0%
Cut–Cut–Pause 0%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

$2.3M Vol. Closed Jun 17, 2026
Resolved outcome: Pause–Pause–Pause

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All outcomes

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$2.3M Vol.

Pause–Pause–Pause

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

Other

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Cut–Cut–Cut

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Cut–Cut–Pause

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Cut–Pause–Cut

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Pause–Cut–Cut

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Cut–Pause–Pause

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Pause–Cut–Pause

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Pause–Pause–Cut

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this event has already started.

Public forecast history

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