Open Economy Polymarket

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Top outcomes

Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

$26K Vol. Closes Sep 16, 2026

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$25.5k Vol.

All outcomes

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$26K Vol.

Pause–Pause–Pause

60% market probability

60%

Explain your Yes on Pause–Pause–Pause Explain your No on Pause–Pause–Pause (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Other

36% market probability

36%

Explain your Yes on Other Explain your No on Other (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Pause–Pause–Cut

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on Pause–Pause–Cut Explain your No on Pause–Pause–Cut (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Pause–Cut–Cut

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Pause–Cut–Cut Explain your No on Pause–Cut–Cut (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Pause–Cut–Pause

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Pause–Cut–Pause Explain your No on Pause–Cut–Pause (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Cut–Cut–Cut

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Cut–Cut–Pause

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Cut–Pause–Cut

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Cut–Pause–Pause

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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