Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 3 100% Yes No
October 6 100% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$119K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?

October 31 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$118K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?

December 31 26% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$115K Vol.
Polymarket

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
October 31 10% Yes No
$110K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 30 17% Yes No
October 31 3% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$100K Vol.
Polymarket

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 1% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$100K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$97K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

October 31 9% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No
$96K Vol.
Polymarket

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

December 31 18% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$95K Vol.
Polymarket

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$91K Vol.
Polymarket

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$88K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

December 31 14% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$88K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?

December 31 36% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$84K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

October 31 11% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No
$78K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 1% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$75K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Stavky by...?

December 31 14% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$71K Vol.
Polymarket

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$66K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

December 31 20% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No
$63K Vol.
Polymarket

Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?

June 30 24% Yes No
December 31 3% Yes No
$62K Vol.
Polymarket

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 3% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$57K Vol.
Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-29 62% Yes No
30-34 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$53K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US 28% Yes No
UK 21% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$51K Vol.
Polymarket

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1 100% Yes No
October 3 100% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$49K Vol.
Polymarket