Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
October 3
100%
Yes
No
October 6
100%
Yes
No
+29 more outcomes
$119K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?
October 31
6%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$118K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?
December 31
26%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$115K Vol.
Polymarket
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
October 31
10%
Yes
No
$110K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
November 30
17%
Yes
No
October 31
3%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$100K Vol.
Polymarket
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
October 31
1%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$100K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
December 31
16%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$97K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
October 31
9%
Yes
No
August 31
0%
Yes
No
$96K Vol.
Polymarket
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?
December 31
18%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$95K Vol.
Polymarket
Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
December 31
16%
Yes
No
October 31
6%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$91K Vol.
Polymarket
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$88K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?
December 31
14%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$88K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
December 31
36%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$84K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Svitle by...?
October 31
11%
Yes
No
August 31
0%
Yes
No
$78K Vol.
Polymarket
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
October 31
1%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$75K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
December 31
14%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$71K Vol.
Polymarket
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
No
October 31
6%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$66K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
December 31
20%
Yes
No
September 30
0%
Yes
No
$63K Vol.
Polymarket
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?
June 30
24%
Yes
No
December 31
3%
Yes
No
$62K Vol.
Polymarket
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
October 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$57K Vol.
Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29
62%
Yes
No
30-34
24%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$53K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
US
28%
Yes
No
UK
21%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$51K Vol.
Polymarket
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 1
100%
Yes
No
October 3
100%
Yes
No
+29 more outcomes
$49K Vol.
Polymarket
Showing 73–96