Macro

Fed Decision in January?

No change 62% Yes No

25 bps increase 34% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$565K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0% 96% Yes No

5.0–6.0% 3% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$935K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

US recession by end of 2026?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$2.3M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0% 48% Yes No

0-1.0% 44% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$58K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0% 5% Yes No

5.5% 2% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$568K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 72% Yes No

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 28% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$105K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2% 89% Yes No

0-1% 6% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$112K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

No 91%

Yes 9%

$10K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1m 100% Yes No

1.1m 100% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$188K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4% 88% Yes No

≤1.9% 6% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$76K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9% 96% Yes No

2.0-2.4% 3% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$59K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

UK Recession in 2026?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$16K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B 43% Yes No

700–800B 21% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$25K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC 3% Yes No

Citigroup 3% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$85K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 2027 10% Yes No

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No

$50K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting 51% Yes No

April 2027 Meeting 32% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$3.8M Vol.

Polymarket Economy