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Polymarket
World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination
Top outcomes
Other
50%
Round of 16
22%
Round of 32
20%
Quarterfinals
20%
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Spain is eliminated. If Spain wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If Spain is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Spain based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$1.5M Vol.
Closes Jul 19, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$1.5m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.5M Vol.
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Round of 16
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on Round of 16
Explain your No on Round of 16
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Round of 32
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Round of 32
Explain your No on Round of 32
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Quarterfinals
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Quarterfinals
Explain your No on Quarterfinals
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Semifinals
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Semifinals
Explain your No on Semifinals
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Final
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Final
Explain your No on Final
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Champion
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Champion
Explain your No on Champion
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Group Stage
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Group Stage
Explain your No on Group Stage
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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Public forecast history
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