Open Science & Tech Polymarket

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2027 52%
June 30, 2027 44%
December 31, 2026 12%

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

$815K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$815.1k Vol.

All outcomes

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$815K Vol.

December 31, 2027

52% market probability

52%
Yes 52% +48 / −52 No 48% +52 / −48

June 30, 2027

44% market probability

44%
Yes 44% +56 / −44 No 55% +45 / −55

December 31, 2026

12% market probability

12%
Yes 12% +88 / −12 No 88% +12 / −88
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