Open
Pop Culture
Polymarket
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Top outcomes
Joe Biden
98%
Barack Obama
95%
Nicolás Maduro
57%
Jerome Powell
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Read more
Show less
$11K Vol.
Closes Jul 31, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$11.3k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$11K Vol.
Joe Biden
98% market probability
98%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 98%
+2 / −98
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 2%
+98 / −2
Barack Obama
95% market probability
95%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 95%
+5 / −95
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 5%
+95 / −5
Explain your Yes on Barack Obama
Explain your No on Barack Obama
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Nicolás Maduro
57% market probability
57%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 57%
+43 / −57
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 43%
+57 / −43
Explain your Yes on Nicolás Maduro
Explain your No on Nicolás Maduro
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Jerome Powell
56% market probability
56%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 56%
+44 / −56
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 44%
+56 / −44
Explain your Yes on Jerome Powell
Explain your No on Jerome Powell
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Alex Jones
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Alex Jones
Explain your No on Alex Jones
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Jimmy Kimmel
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 53%
+47 / −53
Explain your Yes on Jimmy Kimmel
Explain your No on Jimmy Kimmel
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Candace Owens
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 53%
+47 / −53
Explain your Yes on Candace Owens
Explain your No on Candace Owens
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kaitlan Collins
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 54%
+46 / −54
Explain your Yes on Kaitlan Collins
Explain your No on Kaitlan Collins
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Norah O'Donnell
46% market probability
46%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 46%
+54 / −46
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 54%
+46 / −54
Explain your Yes on Norah O'Donnell
Explain your No on Norah O'Donnell
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Megyn Kelly
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 56%
+44 / −56
Explain your Yes on Megyn Kelly
Explain your No on Megyn Kelly
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Marjorie Taylor Greene
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 56%
+44 / −56
Explain your Yes on Marjorie Taylor Greene
Explain your No on Marjorie Taylor Greene
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Tucker Carlson
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Tucker Carlson
Explain your No on Tucker Carlson
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Pope Leo XIV
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Pope Leo XIV
Explain your No on Pope Leo XIV
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Pam Bondi
32% market probability
32%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 68%
+32 / −68
Explain your Yes on Pam Bondi
Explain your No on Pam Bondi
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Zohran Mamdani
26% market probability
26%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 74%
+26 / −74
Explain your Yes on Zohran Mamdani
Explain your No on Zohran Mamdani
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Emmanuel Macron
26% market probability
26%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 74%
+26 / −74
Explain your Yes on Emmanuel Macron
Explain your No on Emmanuel Macron
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Elon Musk
23% market probability
23%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 23%
+77 / −23
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 77%
+23 / −77
Explain your Yes on Elon Musk
Explain your No on Elon Musk
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Benjamin Netanyahu
21% market probability
21%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 21%
+79 / −21
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 79%
+21 / −79
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
Explain your No on Benjamin Netanyahu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Keir Starmer
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Keir Starmer
Explain your No on Keir Starmer
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Freidrich Merz
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on Freidrich Merz
Explain your No on Freidrich Merz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Vladimir Putin
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on Vladimir Putin
Explain your No on Vladimir Putin
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kevin Warsh
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on Kevin Warsh
Explain your No on Kevin Warsh
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mohammed bin Salman
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Mohammed bin Salman
Explain your No on Mohammed bin Salman
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
J.D. Vance
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on J.D. Vance
Explain your No on J.D. Vance
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Viktor Orbán
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Viktor Orbán
Explain your No on Viktor Orbán
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Xi Jinping
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Xi Jinping
Explain your No on Xi Jinping
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Melania Trump
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Melania Trump
Explain your No on Melania Trump
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.