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Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?
Top outcomes
Lisa Nandy
100%
Ed Miliband
100%
John Healey
100%
Louise Haigh
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify.
Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market.
To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution.
If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$162K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$162.0k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$162K Vol.
Lisa Nandy
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Ed Miliband
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Ed Miliband
Explain your No on Ed Miliband
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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John Healey
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on John Healey
Explain your No on John Healey
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Louise Haigh
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Louise Haigh
Explain your No on Louise Haigh
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pat McFadden
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Pat McFadden
Explain your No on Pat McFadden
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alan Campbell
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Alan Campbell
Explain your No on Alan Campbell
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Angela Rayner
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Angela Rayner
Explain your No on Angela Rayner
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Wes Streeting
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Wes Streeting
Explain your No on Wes Streeting
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yvette Cooper
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Yvette Cooper
Explain your No on Yvette Cooper
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Heidi Alexander
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Heidi Alexander
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Shabana Mahmood
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Shabana Mahmood
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jonathan Reynolds
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Jonathan Reynolds
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Bridget Phillipson
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Bridget Phillipson
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jacqui Smith
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Jacqui Smith
Explain your No on Jacqui Smith
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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James Murray
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on James Murray
Explain your No on James Murray
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ian Murray
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Ian Murray
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Peter Kyle
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Peter Kyle
Explain your No on Peter Kyle
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Patrick Vallance
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Patrick Vallance
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jo Stevens
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Jo Stevens
Explain your No on Jo Stevens
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Liz Kendall
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Liz Kendall
Explain your No on Liz Kendall
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dan Jarvis
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Dan Jarvis
Explain your No on Dan Jarvis
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Catherine West
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Catherine West
Explain your No on Catherine West
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Steve Reed
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Steve Reed
Explain your No on Steve Reed
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Keir Starmer
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Keir Starmer
Explain your No on Keir Starmer
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Darren Jones
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Darren Jones
Explain your No on Darren Jones
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Hilary Benn
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Hilary Benn
Explain your No on Hilary Benn
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rachel Reeves
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Rachel Reeves
Explain your No on Rachel Reeves
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jess Phillips
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Jess Phillips
Explain your No on Jess Phillips
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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David Lammy
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on David Lammy
Explain your No on David Lammy
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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