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Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
54%
Other
50%
Movie B
50%
Movie C
50%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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$103K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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$102.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$103K Vol.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
54% market probability
54%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 54%
+46 / −54
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 46%
+54 / −46
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Other
Explain your No on Other
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie B
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie B
Explain your No on Movie B
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie C
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie C
Explain your No on Movie C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie D
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie D
Explain your No on Movie D
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie E
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie E
Explain your No on Movie E
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie F
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie F
Explain your No on Movie F
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie G
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie G
Explain your No on Movie G
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie H
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie H
Explain your No on Movie H
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie I
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie I
Explain your No on Movie I
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie J
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie J
Explain your No on Movie J
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie K
Explain your No on Movie K
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie L
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie L
Explain your No on Movie L
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie M
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie M
Explain your No on Movie M
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie N
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie N
Explain your No on Movie N
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Movie O
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Movie O
Explain your No on Movie O
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Avengers: Doomsday
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 56%
+44 / −56
Explain your Yes on Avengers: Doomsday
Explain your No on Avengers: Doomsday
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Dune: Messiah
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Dune: Messiah
Explain your No on Dune: Messiah
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Toy Story 5
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Toy Story 5
Explain your No on Toy Story 5
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Explain your No on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Explain your No on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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