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Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?

Top outcomes

September 2 80%
September 3 12%
No release by September 15 5%
September 4 2%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$12K Vol. Closes Sep 15, 2026

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$11.7k Vol.

All outcomes

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$12K Vol.

September 2

80% market probability

80%

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0 / 2,000

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September 3

12% market probability

12%

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0 / 2,000

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No release by September 15

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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September 4

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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On or prior to September 1

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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September 14

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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September 11

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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September 10

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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September 15

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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September 8

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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September 5

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 6

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 7

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 9

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 12

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 13

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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