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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?

Top outcomes

170-189 43%
<170 36%
190-209 36%
210-229 28%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

$21K Vol. Closes Sep 13, 2026

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$21.2k Vol.

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$21K Vol.

170-189

43% market probability

43%

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0 / 2,000

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<170

36% market probability

36%

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0 / 2,000

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190-209

36% market probability

36%

Explain your Yes on 190-209 Explain your No on 190-209 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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210-229

28% market probability

28%

Explain your Yes on 210-229 Explain your No on 210-229 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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230+

22% market probability

22%

Explain your Yes on 230+ Explain your No on 230+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

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