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GPT-5.6 released on...?
Top outcomes
July 9
19%
July 16
18%
June 26
10%
June 25
9%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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$47K Vol.
Closes Jul 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$47.1k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$47K Vol.
July 9
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
July 16
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 26
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 25
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Not released before August
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 7
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 2
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 10
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 8
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 31
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 30
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 24
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 18
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 27
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 26
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 5
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 11
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 25
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 22
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 14
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 20
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 15
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 19
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 29
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 4
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 3
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 17
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 21
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 28
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 27
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 27
Explain your No on June 27
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 13
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 13
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 28
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 28
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 6
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 6
Explain your No on July 6
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 12
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 12
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 23
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 23
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 1
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 1
Explain your No on July 1
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 29
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 29
Explain your No on June 29
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 30
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 24 or earlier
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 24 or earlier
Explain your No on June 24 or earlier
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Public forecast history
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