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GPT-5.6 released on...?

Top outcomes

July 9 19%
July 16 18%
June 26 10%
June 25 9%

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$47K Vol. Closes Jul 31, 2026

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$47.1k Vol.

All outcomes

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$47K Vol.

July 9

19% market probability

19%

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0 / 2,000

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July 16

18% market probability

18%

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0 / 2,000

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June 26

10% market probability

10%

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June 25

9% market probability

9%

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Not released before August

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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July 7

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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July 2

4% market probability

4%

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July 10

4% market probability

4%

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July 8

4% market probability

4%

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July 31

4% market probability

4%

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July 30

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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July 24

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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July 18

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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July 27

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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July 26

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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July 5

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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July 11

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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July 25

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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July 22

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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July 14

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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July 20

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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July 15

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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July 19

1% market probability

1%

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July 29

1% market probability

1%

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July 4

1% market probability

1%

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July 3

1% market probability

1%

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July 17

0% market probability

0%

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July 21

0% market probability

0%

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July 28

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 27

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 13

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 28

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 6

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 12

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 23

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 1

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 29

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 24 or earlier

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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