GDP growth in 2026

Top outcomes

2.0–2.5% 32%

1.5–2.0% 29%

>2.5% 22%

<0.5% 5%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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$53K Vol. Closes Jan 29, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$52.8k Vol.

All outcomes

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$53K Vol.

2.0–2.5%

32% market probability

32%

Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

1.5–2.0%

29% market probability

29%

Yes 29% +71 / −29 No 71% +29 / −71

>2.5%

22% market probability

22%

Yes 22% +78 / −22 No 78% +22 / −78

<0.5%

5% market probability

Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

0.5–1.0%

5% market probability

Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

1.0–1.5%

1% market probability

Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Forecasts are closed because this event has already started.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.