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Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

Top outcomes

October 31, 2026 34%
September 30, 2026 18%
August 31, 2026 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

$2K Vol. Closes Nov 1, 2026

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$1.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$2K Vol.

October 31, 2026

34% market probability

34%

Explain your Yes on October 31, 2026 Explain your No on October 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September 30, 2026

18% market probability

18%

Explain your Yes on September 30, 2026 Explain your No on September 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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August 31, 2026

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 31, 2026 Explain your No on August 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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