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Economy
Polymarket
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
Top outcomes
4.3-4.6%
44%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.9-5.2%
4%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
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$33K Vol.
Closes Oct 20, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$32.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$33K Vol.
4.3-4.6%
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 55%
+45 / −55
4.6-4.9%
36% market probability
36%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 64%
+36 / −64
Explain your Yes on 4.6-4.9%
Explain your No on 4.6-4.9%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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4.0-4.3%
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on 4.0-4.3%
Explain your No on 4.0-4.3%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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4.9-5.2%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on 4.9-5.2%
Explain your No on 4.9-5.2%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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5.5%+
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 5.5%+
Explain your No on 5.5%+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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5.2-5.5%
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 5.2-5.5%
Explain your No on 5.2-5.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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<3.4%
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on <3.4%
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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3.7-4.0%
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 3.7-4.0%
Explain your No on 3.7-4.0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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3.4-3.7%
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 3.4-3.7%
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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