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Polymarket
Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026
Top outcomes
Harry Kane
100%
Lamine Yamal
100%
Kylian Mbappé
99%
Rodri
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$85.2k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$85K Vol.
Harry Kane
100% market probability
100%
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
No 0%
+100 / −0
Lamine Yamal
100% market probability
100%
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
No 1%
+99 / −1
Kylian Mbappé
99% market probability
99%
Yes 99%
+1 / −99
No 1%
+99 / −1
Rodri
97% market probability
97%
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
No 3%
+97 / −3
Lionel Messi
97% market probability
97%
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
No 3%
+97 / −3
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
94% market probability
94%
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
No 6%
+94 / −6
Michael Olise
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 14%
+86 / −14
Ousmane Dembélé
82% market probability
82%
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
No 19%
+81 / −19
Erling Haaland
76% market probability
76%
Yes 76%
+24 / −76
No 24%
+76 / −24
Fabian Ruiz
72% market probability
72%
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
No 29%
+71 / −29
Jude Bellingham
35% market probability
35%
Yes 35%
+65 / −35
No 65%
+35 / −65
Pau Cubarsi
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
Declan Rice
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Nuno Mendes
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Luis Diaz
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
William Saliba
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Marc Cucurella
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Achraf Hakimi
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Vitinha
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
João Neves
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Bruno Fernandes
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Willian Pacho
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Lautaro Martinez
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Dayot Upamecano
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Vinícius Júnior
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Gabriel Magalhães
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Ferran Torres
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Marquinhos
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Sadio Mané
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Julián Quiñones
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Public forecast history
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