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Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?

Top outcomes

<25 47%
25-29 20%
30-34 16%
35-39 8%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

$12K Vol. Closes Sep 30, 2026

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$11.6k Vol.

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$12K Vol.

<25

47% market probability

47%

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0 / 2,000

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25-29

20% market probability

20%

Explain your Yes on 25-29 Explain your No on 25-29 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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30-34

16% market probability

16%

Explain your Yes on 30-34 Explain your No on 30-34 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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35-39

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on 35-39 Explain your No on 35-39 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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40+

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on 40+ Explain your No on 40+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

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