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Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
15 events end within this window — sorted soonest first.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
50-74
62%
Yes
No
<50
25%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$97K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 31
0%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$10.0M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
July 31
2%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$329K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
July 31
1%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$165K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?
August 31
4%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$84K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
July 31
2%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$81K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?
July 31
6%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$71K Vol.
Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
40+
100%
Yes
No
30+
9%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 7
100%
Yes
No
July 12
100%
Yes
No
+33 more outcomes
$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
United States
14%
Yes
No
United Kingdom
2%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$458K Vol.
Polymarket
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 31
8%
Yes
No
July 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$410K Vol.
Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-20
95%
Yes
No
20-40
4%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$239K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 31
6%
Yes
No
July 21
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$100K Vol.
Polymarket
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
July 31
6%
Yes
No
July 24
1%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$84K Vol.
Polymarket
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?
July 31
97%
Yes
No
July 24
4%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$55K Vol.
Polymarket