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US military action against Cuba by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Where will Tyreek Hill play in 2026? What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? Brazil Presidential Election Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms NBA: LeBron James Next Team Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Forecasts closed Pop Culture Polymarket

2nd richest person on December 31?

Top outcomes

Larry Page 60%
Sergey Brin 35%
Steve Ballmer 25%
Bernard Arnault 22%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

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$46K Vol. Closed Mar 31, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$45.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$46K Vol.

Larry Page

60% market probability

60%
Yes 60% +40 / −60 No 40% +60 / −40

Sergey Brin

35% market probability

35%
Yes 35% +65 / −35 No 65% +35 / −65

Steve Ballmer

25% market probability

25%
Yes 25% +75 / −25 No 75% +25 / −75

Bernard Arnault

22% market probability

22%
Yes 22% +78 / −22 No 78% +22 / −78

Mark Zuckerberg

19% market probability

19%
Yes 19% +81 / −19 No 81% +19 / −81

Larry Ellison

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Elon Musk

5% market probability

5%
Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

Jeff Bezos

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

Jensen Huang

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Warren Buffett

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this event has already started.

Public forecast history

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