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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Next French Presidential Election F1 Drivers' Champion Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? NBA: 2027 Champion Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Iran leader end of 2026? Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Top outcomes

1510 40%
1520 24%
1530 12%
1540 11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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$96K Vol. Closes Sep 30, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$96.3k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$96K Vol.

1510

40% market probability

40%

Explain your Yes on 1510 Explain your No on 1510 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1520

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 1520 Explain your No on 1520 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1530

12% market probability

12%

Explain your Yes on 1530 Explain your No on 1530 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1540

11% market probability

11%

Explain your Yes on 1540 Explain your No on 1540 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1550

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on 1550 Explain your No on 1550 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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